Latest election polls

The latest election polls are out and now show the FMLN leading ARENA nationally and in San Salvador. The minor parties are not showing any improvement in their position. The most recent poll by the Technological University of El Salvador shows:

Preference for deputies to the National Assembly:

• FMLN -- 40.2%
• ARENA -- 38.1%
• PCN -- 11.6%
• PDC -- 6.9%

This is a dramatic change from polling last November which showed ARENA leading the FMLN by 20 points.

The FMLN candidate for mayor of San Salvador, Violeta Menjivar, is starting to pull ahead of Samayoa of ARENA, lessening the possibility that the thrd party candidacy of current mayor Carlos Rivas Zamora would split the votes on the left and allow an ARENA victory.

Preferences for mayor of San Salvador:

• Violeta Menjivar (FMLN) 27.27%
• Rodrigo Samayoa (ARENA) 22.73%
• Carlos Rivas Zamora (CD/FDR) 15.73%

Other polling results published in El Diario de Hoy show that in mayoral races, incumbents are usually in the lead and the major parties are splitting cities about evenly. The only exception to this advantage for incumbents is in San Salvador, where Carlos Rivas Zamora switched parties and left the FMLN for his third party candidacy.

Important Disclaimer -- pre-election polls in El Salvador are frequently poor predictors of what will actually happen. The only thing certain is that the close race will increase the heat of the rhetoric on both sides.