Fewer Salvadorans (in El Salvador) than projected
The census of El Salvador's population has drawn to a close, and according to preliminary figures cited in La Prensa, there are fewer Salvadorans in El Salvador than officials were projecting. The last official census was in 1992, right after the conclusion of the armed conflict. Calculations based on that census, using assumptions about birth rates, migration and mortality had come up with estimates that there should currently be about 7.1 million people living in the country. Now that 18,000 census takers have gone door to door throughout the country, the actual count appears to be no more that 6.7 million, and could be as small as 6.1 million, according to La Prensa's sources.
According to officials, possible reasons for the lower population figures include migration, fewer children per family, increased levels of education, increased coverage of health services, and increased participation of women in the labor force.
My prediction -- you can expect the ARENA government to spin this as good news -- it means a greater per capita income statistic when you divide the country's Gross Domestic Product by the number of inhabitants. You will hear little mention of the fact that the most likely reason for the under-estimation is that migration is greater than the government has been saying as Salvadorans abandon hope of being able to find jobs which can sustain a family in El Salvador.
According to officials, possible reasons for the lower population figures include migration, fewer children per family, increased levels of education, increased coverage of health services, and increased participation of women in the labor force.
My prediction -- you can expect the ARENA government to spin this as good news -- it means a greater per capita income statistic when you divide the country's Gross Domestic Product by the number of inhabitants. You will hear little mention of the fact that the most likely reason for the under-estimation is that migration is greater than the government has been saying as Salvadorans abandon hope of being able to find jobs which can sustain a family in El Salvador.
Comments
on a different note, i do think it's a positive that the population living in el salvador is not as numerous as it could be. it should be a bit less crowded, and the country could theoretically sustain fewer people better. what do u think?
Fact is, El Salvador has finally returned or exceeded the GDP figures we had back in 1974, and there is no denying:
War 21 yrs. 1971-1992: we became poorer, worse fed, less educated
Peace 13 yrs 1992-2005: we became richer and recovered the ground lost due to the Communist guerrillas
If we had not had the Communist attack, we would be a richer, healthier, more educated country by now.
Yes. We might.
But Argentina, South Africa, Chile, Brazil, and about 15 countries in Eastern Europe became free democracies, like ours, in 1980-1992, with no bloodshed involved.
Fact is, in middle-income countries such as El Salvador, the time for dictatorships is over, war or no war.
Therefore, the most likely outcome of no war would have been free elections around 1985 (about the same time as Brazil).
Sorry, you just can't justify the communist attack. It ended up costing 75,000 lives.
Yeap, of which 85% (of those 75,000) were direct victims of the right-wing government and their terrorism- the military, PCN and ARENA/Death squads at the end- and not of the "communist attack".
We wouldn't have had a war, if the right-wing terrorists had not been killing hundreds and thousands of innocent civilians.
And one more thing:
How many is 700 x 365?
"Diariamente vía terrestre 700 salvadoreños buscan llegar de manera indocumentada a Estados Unidos, pero en esa ruta 200 son detenidos principalmente en México", ARENA/Francisco Lainez, chancellor of El Salvador.
http://www.laprensagrafica.com/lodeldia/20070417/9942.asp
So, if the government's official voice is saying that 700 salvadoreans flee the country everyday, wel, how many is 700 x 365 x 15 years of "peace"?
¿See what I mean? The communist attack that began in 1971 cannot be justified: the loss of 35 years of economic development is what left us so poor that so many prefer to emigrate.
You do not see this in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, or most of the other former military dictatorship countries that did not suffer an armed communist attack like El Salvador did and are now peaceful democracies.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.
But there are some 30 countries south of the United States, and none except Cuba are military dictatorships, though most were in 1975.
Based on the empiric evidence, your assertion just does not hold. The chances of El Salvador being a military dictatorship today under an alternate non-communist attack scenario are nearly zero.
Secondly, and I know we all know this, and we are probably just being cute for partisan gain here, but if in fact 85% of the 75,000 war deaths are attributed to the right, it just is not intellectually honest to blame "the Communists" for the 75,000 deaths. Please try to bear in mind that most of these dead were innocent civilians, caught in the middle or falsely accused of being "communists." It is therefore the more painful to say that "communists" are responsible, because you impugn the innocent dead, and it is painful for the victims, and it is wrong, to do this just to score some cheap political points.
he has NO CLUE
occasionally he says something of worth, but most is rhetoric for the right
forgive him for his total inaccuracies and nonsense
Preguntá por todos los muertos en ARGENTINA, sUDÁFRICA Y Chile para hablar de que no hay sangre involucrada!
Te pasas.
Amen! This is why we have to praise the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo, who were persistent in their non-violent protests towards the military dictatorship. They knew peace begets peace and violence begets violence.
And we have to condemn the Communist torturers, kidnappers and murderers who started the war in 1971. They ignited a conflagration that ultimately took 75,000 lives. I don't consider them idiotic enough to expect that their violence was going to be returned with kindness and love: therefore, they knew they were starting a fire that would bleed their nation and cause widespread misery. ¿Do you?
Or we could have a little self respect.